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I Warned Bola Tinubu That This Day Would Come

By Farooq A. Kperogi, Ph.D. Twitter: @farooqkperogi The political coalition between Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC and Bola Tinubu’s ACN has all but...

By Farooq A. Kperogi, Ph.D.

The political coalition between Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC and Bola Tinubu’s ACN has all but collapsed. There was nothing even remotely surprising about it. In previous columns, media interviews, and social media updates, I predicted that this would happen.

For example, in my June 23, 2018 column titled “Buhari’s June 12 Pandering and Naivety of Yoruba Elite,” I wrote:

“Buhari may well get a second term with the help of votes from the Southwest. But one thing is as certain as tomorrow’s date: he will spectacularly fall out with the Yoruba elite whose support he’s bending over backwards to court now. He’d no longer have a need for them after 2019 and might even remember that they betrayed him in 2011.

“These same people would then turn against not just Buhari but the entire North. If we’re alive till then, we’d remind them that they are complicit in their own fate. An Italian proverb says, 'When a man deceives me once, it is his fault; when twice, it is mine.'"

In a January 26, 2019 column titled “Bola Tinubu’s Costly 2023 Political Gamble,” I wrote the following, among other things that have come to pass:

“Tinubu is going into another alliance with Buhari in hopes that Buhari and his supporters will reward him with a presidential ticket in 2023. That’s a costly miscalculation for a whole host of reasons.

“I am familiar enough with members of Buhari’s inner circle to know that they deeply despise Tinubu. They snigger at his presidential ambition and are amused by his expectation that they would support him. Tinubu himself knows this. That’s why I am shocked that he appears irresistibly and dangerously drawn to people who will throw him like he is hot after the February election. Maybe he is gripped by the sort of deathly attraction that causes a moth to embrace a flame.

“During a TV appearance on Television Continental on February 20, 2018, Tinubu’s wife, Remi, said Tinubu was 'trashed' by Buhari’s northern political machine after the 2015 election. People who 'trashed' you after an electoral triumph to which you’re central will certainly go the whole hog and incinerate or bury you in the aftermath of another victory that will ensure that they will no longer need you.

“Apart from the certain betrayal that will surely come from the Buhari camp in the event that Tinubu helps them to win or rig the 2019 election, a Tinubu presidential candidacy will be beset by a lot of problems. Given the heightened sensitivity of religion in Nigeria now, which is made even more so by Buhari’s unexampled, in-your-face bigotry, Tinubu would be required to have a northern Christian as a running mate to earn the support of the South and the Christian North. That would, however, automatically alienate Buhari’s northern Muslim supporters. So his ambition is dead before it’s even born.

“Most importantly, though, as Tinubu himself knows only too well, a vote for APC in the coming presidential election won't be a vote for Buhari; it would be a vote for an evil, greedy, corrupt, provincial, and reactionary cabal and their minions who are currently perpetrating a stratospheric theft of the nation's resources in ways that would make an angel of Abacha. President Buhari is an insentient human vegetable who is barely aware of his own existence.”

In a September 21, 2019 column, titled “Why Bola Tinubu Can Never Be Nigeria’s President,” I pointed out that “Before the 2019 election, a friend of mine who is close to Abba Kyari confided in me that after the election they would ‘deal with Tinubu and his people.’ He bragged that by the time they are done with him and his underlings, he would be so damaged that he won’t even be an option for the 2023 presidency. It’s already starting.”

In a December 22, 2019 social media status update titled “Tinubu’s Dangerous Dance with the Cabal,” I wrote:

“The cabal is toying with Bola Tinubu like a yo-yo—and he is naively, if gingerly, playing along— in readiness for his eventual political incineration by or before 2023. And the cabal is being ruthlessly Machiavellian about it.

“Tinubu has been given a fake promissory note that he’ll be APC’s presidential torchbearer in 2023. On the strength of this worthless promissory note, they’ve sought his permission to destroy some of his most trusted foot soldiers.

“With his consent, they’ve consigned Yemi Osinbajo to symbolic Aso Rock prison. Tinubu endorsed Tunde Fowler’s replacement at the FIRS and is in on his impending trial for corruption. He also stamped his imprimatur to Muiz Banire’s unceremonious ouster from AMCON. He’s giddily approving everything the cabal tells him it wants to do to his 'constituents' and foot soldiers.

“He has now fallen out of favor with almost all Southwest governors except his dutiful stooge in Lagos and his nephew in Osun. Of course, he is a bête noire to Afenifere. At this rate, Tinubu would divorce his wife and disown his children if the cabal tells him to do so—just because he’s told that he’d be president.

“This is a strategic, Machiavellian demobilization of his base, but one in which he is a willing participant, using the illusory promise of APC presidential nomination. When he is eventually denied the APC presidential slot, he would have no one of political consequence in his natal region to fall back to for counterattack other than his battering rams in the Lagos media.

“Before his eventual political annihilation, he would be thoroughly unpopular in the Southwest. His fate would elicit no mass sympathy from the region when the cabal finally bares its fangs publicly and devours him.”

And in a December 8, 2019 interview with The Interview magazine’s Azubuike Ishiekwene, I said the following in response to the question, “If you were to make a prediction about the political landscape in 2020, what would it be?”

“I have no—nor do I believe anyone has—oracular powers, but I think 2020 would witness the incipience of the alignment of political forces preparatory to the 2023 election.

“The Buhari/Tinubu alliance would crack more noticeably. The people who prop Buhari in power don’t want Tinubu—or anyone outside their primordial constituency—to succeed them. That’s my prediction.”

What hasn’t started to happen yet is the fight I predicted between paid Buhari and Tinubu loyalists on social media. In an October 5, 2018 social media post titled “Contest of Idiocy Between Buharists and Tinubuists,” I said, among other things:

“It’s no surprise that Buharists and Tinubuists are in a coalition of buffoonery to reelect a lifeless Buhari in 2019. When pigheaded Buhari fanaticism collides with sheepish Tinubu loyalty, it sparks the sort of combustible admixture of idiocy we’re seeing today, which disposes otherwise normal people to lend unthinking support to transparently incompetent people for political office. Thankfully, the rank of the Tinubuists is dwindling dramatically.

“Buharists and Tinubuists certainly share the same slavish, uncritical, freakish mentality, but wait to see what will happen in 2023 (if Buhari wins a second term) when Buhari disappoints Tinubu by not 'handing over' power to him--as he expects Buhari would. You'd be entertained by the fight that would break out between the two idiotic camps that are friends today. Save this somewhere.”

So Tinubu had lots of warning that the fate that has befallen him now was a foregone conclusion. He ignored it and chose instead to legitimize the worst civilian regime in Nigeria’s history. He deserves his fate.

Well, the next predictable phase in the unfolding drama is for Tinubu to turn the Lagos news media against the Buhari regime— and for his mindless loyalists to clash with Buharists in a contest of idiocy. That would be an entertaining spectacle to watch.


  1. I look forward to Saturdays because of this column. Thanks for your consistencies all these years.Meanwhile I thought it was actually Tinubu's ACN not his CAN.

  2. Wow. How uncanny? This is obviously a prophecy coming to fruition before our very eyes. Good reason you mustn't be deterred by detractors and traducers and their pettiness...

    1. God bless Farooq Kperogi for all he does for our sick country.

      I love him.

  3. Thanks a lot professor, however methinks by the end of 2021 they're may be no party called APC any longer. All the signs are there, the glue holding them together is already disintegrating.

  4. Aptly expressed and I hail Buhari's camp for the huge blow against Tinubuists

  5. I am enjoying all the drama as it unfolds. Kudos to Dr. Farooq.

  6. I am enjoying all the drama as it unfolds. Kudos to Dr. Farooq.

  7. With the heightened religious cleavages in Nigeria, I doubt if a southern Muslim has any chance of being President same for a Northern Christian.

  8. Sir , you should be awarded Tue Professor of Northern Politics

  9. Thanks for your fearleas,incisive and accurate journalistic writing. Kindly do this for us: Read into the "Fulani PRP Jega 2023 Plan" and let us know whatever your journalistic barometer reading says. Thanks once again.

  10. Intelligently crafted this is political science 401.

  11. What jocose and wicked jokes fate plays on mortals. The wicked shall surely be punished. Neither Tinubu nor Buhari shall be spared this surrealjudgment

  12. Well articulated piece. APC is a revolving tent that deals with anyone who helped them to come to power. Many victims are coming underway.

  13. You're are the #1 Oracle on Nigeria political shenanigans at the centre.

  14. All Tinubu has left is to you the threat of oduduwa against the North

    Let him say support me or we form Oduduwa

    Lets see who will blink 1st

  15. THE FEMI FANI-KAYODE-pot calling THE BOLA AHMED TINUBU-kettle BLACK...My people, you judge for yourself

    It is not often that I respond to TRAITORS, especially when they are BOTH busy destroying each other.
    But this is DIVINE intervention; in fulfilment of what I forecast several years ago, as the just rewards and recompense of one so greedy that he bold-facedly, failed to account for this GRAND LARCENY, THEFT & PERSONAL CONVERSION of the sovereign assets of LAGOS STATE to his own use & acquisition...which in the absence of any meaningful sustained opposition and public outcry he temporarily appears to have gotten away with. Even, Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka, former human rights activist and social reformer, who in a previous incarnation risked it all, even his personal freedom, to embark on a treasonable act by trying to overthrow the government of Ladoke Akintola, the erstwhile premier of the former Western region of Nigeria. FOR A JUST AND LAUDABLE CAUSE !!! Surprisingly & miraculously, this time around, his mouth and vocal chords have been so pleasantly stuffed that he has been unable to utter a single word of REBUKE against his newly-found hero...BE THAT AS IT MAY...but thus is the MYSTERIOUS & MARVELLOUS WONDERFUL WORKS OF THE GODS… that those whom they wish to DESTROY; are first set up against each other as a way to RENDERING THEM MAD in the PRESENCE of those that they have so FANTASTICALLY & CORRUPTLY WRONGED.
    Uncle Buki .
    Media, Political & Business Commentator

    Lieutenant Colonel (Dr) Buki Morgan MBBS psc MNIM NAF MC rtd.
    ex USAF Malcolm Grow Medical Center
    United States Presidential Flight Line
    Andrews Air Force Base
    Maryland, Washington DC, USA...1987

    The United States Air Force School of AeroSpace Medicine (USAFSAM)
    San Antonio, Texas
    Distinguished Alumnus: USAF SCHOOL OF AEROSPACE MEDICINE, BROOKS AFB, San Antonio, TX, 1987
    United States Air Force School of AeroSpace Medicine (USAFSAM)
    San Antonio, Texas
    Distinguished Alumnus: USAF SCHOOL OF AEROSPACE MEDICINE, BROOKS AFB, San Antonio, TX, 1987

    AIR POWER PRIZE...1983
    MILITARY Command & Staff College. Jaji, Kaduna

    PRIZE for BEST ARTICLE...”Eagle ‘83 “ Magazine...
    MILITARY Command & Staff College. Jaji, Kaduna

    Wing Commander (Dr) Buki Morgan MBBS psc MNIM NAF MC rtd.
    ex Headquarters, Nigerian Air Force Medical Centre
    Yoruba Tennis Club Avenue, Onikan, Lagos and
    Presidential Flight Line
    Nigerian Air Force,
    Sam Ethnan Air Force Base **
    Murtala Mohammad International Airport, Ikeja
    Nigeria ...1972-1990

    From my iPad Pro 12.9" Colindale, NW9 London & Surulere, Lagos
    27 Jun 2020

  16. If you are one of these modern day prophets, he would have listened to you. He ignored your consistent warning...he will be swallowed by his own stubbornness.

  17. Beautifully written. We are onlookers and spectators eagerly waiting for the unfolding drama and theatrics of the APC. Very soon, I say very soon, the centre will no longer hold.

  18. I was coaxed by your deepest prophetic miraculous perception on the end of one of the key parcel of APC, whose work is is more powerful than the useless President.
    May we witness the end of this cruel party .

  19. Well thought and well written. My mystery is how earth had Tinubu not seen this coming? He must be
    dwelling in cloud cuckoo land.

  20. Well thought and well written. My mystery is how earth had Tinubu not seen this coming? He must be
    dwelling in cloud cuckoo land.

  21. Well thought and well written. My mystery is how on earth had Tinubu not seen this coming? He must be
    dwelling in cloud cuckoo land.

  22. Nigeria we AD"only God can fixed our problem in nigeria ,not this set if greedy so call leaders we have at the moment???

  23. Thank-you Prof, may God keep you alive for us. Good work.

  24. I really followed you prof. You are right even me have the same thought on it

  25. I have always knew that that the Yorubas made a serious mistake a very costly mistake of going into alliance with Coe north especially a man like Buhari who is a staunch fundamentalist, if it's with any other northerner no problem but a man like Buhari who believes in a fundamentalist.

  26. The mistake BAT is making is that he is not being realistic and he is self centered.
    Whatever comes to the alliance should be viewed as benefit to the group. Considering the political arrangements on ground the Southwest has benefited alot. He can forego the ambition for now and still allow a member of the group to benefit and then wait till other areas are serviced. For example see what the Southwest has benefited
    1. They've been 2 Term Presieent
    2. In this alliance they were Vice President
    3. They were Speaker
    And if the Presidency should come to the South anybody who have benefited thus far needs to be rationale


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